The quest for a donor: probability based methods offer help

When a patient in need of a stem cell transplant has no compatible donor within his or her closest family, and no matched unrelated donor can be found, a remaining option is to search within the patient’s extended family. This situation often arises when the patient is of an ethnic minority, originating from a country that lacks a well-developed stem cell donor program, and has HLA haplotypes that are rare in his or her country of residence. Searching within the extended family may be time-consuming and expensive, and tools to calculate the probability of a match within groups of untested relatives would facilitate the search. We present a general approach to calculating the probability of a match in a given relative, or group of relatives, based on the pedigree, and on knowledge of the genotypes of some of the individuals. The method extends previous approaches by allowing the pedigrees to be consanguineous and arbitrarily complex, with deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. We show how this extension has a considerable effect on results, in particular for rare haplotypes. The methods are exemplified using freeware programs to solve a case of practical importance

Sun-like Stars Shed Light on Solar Climate Forcing

Recently published, precise stellar photometry of 72 Sun-like stars obtained at the Fairborn Observatory between 1993 and 2017 is used to set limits on the solar forcing of Earth's atmosphere of $\pm$ 4.5 W m$^{-2}$ since 1750. This compares with the +2.2 $\pm$ 1.1 W m$^{-2}$ IPCC estimate for anthropogenic forcing. Three critical assumptions are made. In decreasing order of importance they are: (a) most of the brightness variations occur within the average time-series length of $\approx$17 years; (b) the Sun seen from the ecliptic behaves as an ensemble of middle-aged solar-like stars; and (c) narrow-band photometry in the Str\"omgren $b$ and $y$ bands are linearly proportional to the total solar irradiance. Assumption (a) can best be relaxed and tested by obtaining more photometric data of Sun-like stars, especially those already observed. Eight stars with near-solar parameters have been observed from 1999, and two since 1993. Our work reveals the importance of continuing and expanding ground-based photometry, to complement expensive solar irradiance measurements from space.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, accepted to The Astrophysical Journal Letter

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021

McIntosh and colleagues identified an event in the solar timeline that appeared to play a role in how Sunspot Cycle 23 (SC23) transitioned into Sunspot Cycle 24 (SC24). The timeframe for this transition was rapid, taking place in as short as time as a solar rotation. M2014 inferred that the transition observed was a critical episode for the Sun's global-scale magnetic field that was being manifest in the spatially and temporally overlapping and magnetic systems belonging to the Sun's 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle. These events have been dubbed as Hale Cycle terminations, or `terminators' for short. Further exploration revealed a relationship between terminator separation (as a measure of overlap in the Hale Cycles) and the upcoming sunspot cycle amplitude. McIntosh and colleagues extrapolated upon this relationship to identify the termination of the SC24 carrying Hale Cycle band in Mid-2020 and inferred that this would result in a very large Sunspot Cycle 25 (SC25). This paper presents observational analysis of the end of SC24 and the initial months of SC25 growth following a terminator that occurred in mid-December 2021 (approximately 12/13/2021). We use the December 2021 terminator to finalize the forecast of SC25 amplitude 184 ($\pm$17 with 95\% confidence, and $\pm$63 with 68\% confidence). Finally, we use other terminator-related superposed epoch analyses to project the timing of SC25 maxima in late 2023 to mid 2024.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures - Submitted to Frontier

Impact of Rubin Observatory LSST Template Acquisition Strategies on Early Science from the Transients and Variable Stars Science Collaboration: Non-time-critical Science Cases

Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, LSST, will revolutionize modern astronomy by producing an extremely deep (coadded depth ~27 mag) depth-limited survey of the entire southern sky (LSST Science Collaboration et al. 2009). The 8.4 m large-aperture, wide-field telescope, which is based in Cerro Pachón, will image the entire Southern sky every three nights in multiple bands (SDSS-u, g, r, i, z, y) and produce a fire-hose of data, 20 Tb each night, concluding in a 60 petabyte data set as the legacy of the 10 yr survey. Extracting meaningful light curves from variable objects requires difference imaging to both identify variability and calibrate light curve data products. Templates, co-added groups of visits that act as an image of the "static" sky, are a key component of Difference Imaging Analysis (DIA) and as such are of paramount importance for all science that involves variable objects. As the "non-time-critical" science cases discussed here are mostly periodic, they generally do not depend upon the survey alert stream; however, templates are still crucial for performing science and calibrations during the first year. We provide recommendations for observing strategies for template acquisition starting from commissioning and through Year 1 of the survey

Photospheric and chromospheric magnetic activity of seismic solar analogs. Observational inputs on the solar/stellar connection from Kepler and Hermes

We identify a set of 18 solar analogs among the seismic sample of solar-like stars observed by the Kepler satellite rotating between 10 and 40 days. This set is constructed using the asteroseismic stellar properties derived using either the global oscillation properties or the individual acoustic frequencies. We measure the magnetic activity properties of these stars using observations collected by the photometric Kepler satellite and by the ground-based, high-resolution Hermes spectrograph mounted on the Mercator telescope. The photospheric (Sph) and chromospheric (S index) magnetic activity levels of these seismic solar analogs are estimated and compared in relation to the solar activity. We show that the activity of the Sun is comparable to the activity of the seismic solar analogs, within the maximum-to-minimum temporal variations of the 11-year solar activity cycle 23. In agreement with previous studies, the youngest stars and fastest rotators in our sample are actually the most active. The activity of stars older than the Sun seems to not evolve much with age. Furthermore, the comparison of the photospheric, Sph, with the well-established chromospheric, S index, indicates that the Sph index can be used to provide a suitable magnetic activity proxy which can be easily estimated for a large number of stars from space photometric observations.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&

The spherical probe electric field and wave experiment

The experiment is designed to measure the electric field and density fluctuations with sampling rates up to 40,000 samples/sec. The description includes Langmuir sweeps that can be made to determine the electron density and temperature, the study of nonlinear processes that result in acceleration of plasma, and the analysis of large scale phenomena where all four spacecraft are needed

Hunger among Inuit children in Canada

Background and objectives. Inuit populations may be at increased risk for experiencing poor nutrition or hunger due to limited access and availability to food. The prevalence and correlates of parental perceptions of hunger among a nationally representative sample of Inuit children in Canada have not yet been reported. Design. Data are from the 2006 Aboriginal Children's Survey (ACS). Sociodemographic information, dietary behaviours and hunger status were parent-reported via a household interview for Inuit children aged 2–5 years (n=1,234). Prevalence of hunger was calculated among Inuit children by sociodemographic factors and by dietary behaviours. In addition, a multivariate logistic regression model was conducted to determine factors associated with parental perception of ever experiencing hunger. Results. The prevalence of Inuit children in Canada aged 2–5 years ever experiencing hunger was 24.4%. Children who were reported to have experienced hunger consumed milk and milk products (p<0.001); fish, eggs and meat (p<0.05); fruits (p<0.001); and vegetables (p<0.001) significantly less often than never-hungry children. Fast food and processed foods, soft drinks and juice, and salty snacks, sweets and desserts were consumed as often as never-hungry children (all p>0.05). The majority (81%) of Inuit parents/guardians of ever-hungry children sought help from family or friends. Factors associated with an increased likelihood of experiencing hunger include sociodemographic characteristics (such as income and household size), living in an Inuit region and living in a community with cultural activities. Conclusion. About 1 in 4 Inuit children were reported by their parents to have experienced hunger, and hunger was associated with region, sociodemographic and community factors. Future research could further examine the impact of ever experiencing hunger on the health status of Inuit children and their families in Canada

Magnetic variability in the young solar analog KIC 10644253: Observations from the Kepler satellite and the HERMES spectrograph

The continuous photometric observations collected by the Kepler satellite over 4 years provide a whelm of data with an unequalled quantity and quality for the study of stellar evolution of more than 200000 stars. Moreover, the length of the dataset provide a unique source of information to detect magnetic activity and associated temporal variability in the acoustic oscillations. In this regards, the Kepler mission was awaited with great expectation. The search for the signature of magnetic activity variability in solar-like pulsations still remained unfruitful more than 2 years after the end of the nominal mission. Here, however, we report the discovery of temporal variability in the low-degree acoustic frequencies of the young (1 Gyr-old) solar analog KIC 10644253 with a modulation of about 1.5 years with significant temporal variations along the duration of the Kepler observations. The variations are in agreement with the derived photometric activity. The frequency shifts extracted for KIC 10644253 are shown to result from the same physical mechanisms involved in the inner sub-surface layers as in the Sun. In parallel, a detailed spectroscopic analysis of KIC 10644253 is performed based on complementary ground-based, high-resolution observations collected by the HERMES instrument mounted on the MERCATOR telescope. Its lithium abundance and chromospheric activity S-index confirm that KIC 10644253 is a young and more active star than the Sun.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A, 12 pages, 8 figure

Psychometric Properties of the General Organizational Index (GOI): A Measure of Individualization and Quality Improvement to Complement Program Fidelity

To assess the implementation of effective practices, mental health programs need standardized measures. The General Organizational Index (GOI), although widely used for this purpose, has received minimal psychometric research. For this study, we assessed psychometric properties of the GOI scale administered four times over 18 months during the implementation of a new program in 11 sites. The GOI scale demonstrated high levels of interrater reliability (.97), agreement between assessors on item ratings (86% overall), internal consistency (.77–.80 at three time points), sensitivity to change, and feasibility. We conclude that the GOI scale has acceptable psychometric properties, and its use may enhance implementation and research on evidence-based mental health practices.publishedVersio